66% of logistics pros say talent quality — not cost — is the #1 factor in choosing a nearshore partner. Rapido's integration model explains why that's the right question to be asking.
Plus, a carrier pleading guilty to mob money laundering while still FMCSA-active, Iran's first post-ceasefire attack and what it means for diesel surcharges, FedEx Freight's first earnings as a standalone company, and more in today's newsletter.
Freight brokers are measuring their inboxes wrong. Most inbound email is monitoring, not work. And the longtail categories that look like noise are costing real margin. Here's how to audit what's actually in your inbox, and why it matters in 2026's margin-first market.
The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Happy Friday the 13th. The Hormuz situation keeps escalating. More ships are trapped, oil is above $100, and the domino effects are just starting. We break it down in today's feature.
Plus:
📦 FedEx Just Dethroned UPS. FedEx hit $84.9 billion in market value on March 9, edging past UPS at $84.86 billion, the first time in UPS's 119-year history that UPS wasn't the most valuable parcel carrier in the US. UPS has fallen 14% this month alone, weighed down by the loss of Amazon volume, a brutal union contract in 2023, and investors still unconvinced the company can replace what it gave up. FedEx is up 25% this year. Two carriers that used to own different parts of the market are now fighting for the same freight, and one of them is winning.
🇲🇽 Mexico Truck Production Plunges. Mexico built 6,974 tractor-trailers and cargo trucks in February. A year ago, it built nearly twice that. Fourteen consecutive months of decline. Fixed investment in Mexico has been negative for over a year, meaning companies that would normally be buying new trucks aren't buying any. For every 100 new rigs sold in the Mexican market right now, 64 used American trucks cross the border to take their place. Freightliner's Mexican output fell 32%. International trucks fell 91%.
🤖 BackOps Raises $26M for AI Supply Chain Automation. San Francisco startup BackOps AI raised $26 million in Series A funding to expand its platform that automates supply chain operations. The company says its system can cut manual logistics work and improve customer response times by 93% by handling tasks like carrier claims, reshipments, and customer inquiries across email and Slack. BackOps argues that global supply chains still run on roughly $100 billion in manual operational work, and its goal is to build the AI “operating layer” that connects all those fragmented systems. Still, the market is getting crowded as more freight tech startups race to apply AI to logistics workflows.
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Here's where things stand now.
The oil math keeps getting uglier.
Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast twice in one week. They're now calling $98 average for March-April, with an extreme scenario at $145.
Macquarie says $150 is possible.
Wood Mackenzie put $200 "not outside the realms of possibility." The IEA coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history: 400 million barrels. But that didn't matter much to the market. Releasing 3.3 million barrels a day does nothing against 15 million barrels a day in losses.
Gulf oil producers are turning off wells because storage is full. Those wells don't restart overnight.
Maersk is now trucking cargo inland from ports in Oman and the UAE. Ocean carriers are scrambling for any route that bypasses the Gulf entirely.
So what for brokers and carriers?
Diesel is at a 32-year record, and the structural reasons haven't changed. Fuel costs are just the first domino.
When oil stays above $100, small carriers park trucks. Parked trucks mean tighter capacity. Tighter capacity means spot rates climb fast. The freight recovery that was already building gets turbocharged by a supply shock nobody planned for. Shippers who locked in contract rates last fall are about to look very smart. Brokers caught in the middle without a margin cushion are about to feel it.
Zoom out further, and it gets heavier. Goldman is calling $145 in an extreme scenario. Wood Mackenzie said $200 isn't out of the question. At those levels, this stops being a freight story and starts being an everything story. Manufacturing costs, consumer prices, import volumes, the whole chain.
The Strait reopening doesn't immediately reverse any of this. Even after peace breaks out, the supply chain takes weeks to normalize.
Plan accordingly.
Sources: FreightWaves, CNBC, Landline Media, Foreign Policy, FreightWaves, Wall Street Journal
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🥔 $600K Potato Heist. A Florida man was charged with stealing over $600,000 worth of onions and potatoes by impersonating companies, ordering produce shipments, and diverting the loads before payment was made.
⚖️ De Minimis Just Got a Second Life in Court. A federal judge reopened the lawsuit challenging Trump's suspension of the duty-free import exemption. The outcome could reshape how low-value freight moves into the US.
🎓 Congress Wants to Pay for Your CDL. A new federal proposal would, for the first time, make Pell Grant funding available for CDL training programs. It dropped the same week the government torched hundreds of fraudulent CDL schools.
💸 $51M Hidden Inside a Florida Trucking Company. A trucking company owner was ordered to repay $51 million after prosecutors unraveled what they called an "elaborate" Ponzi scheme built around the business.
🚛 $108M Fraud Buried Inside FedEx Ground Contracts. Two Salt Lake trucking company owners were found guilty of a financial conspiracy that cost FedEx Ground $108 million. The scheme ran for years before anyone caught it.
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Plus, a carrier pleading guilty to mob money laundering while still FMCSA-active, Iran's first post-ceasefire attack and what it means for diesel surcharges, FedEx Freight's first earnings as a standalone company, and more in today's newsletter.
Bad carriers are gaming the weigh station system. Plus, C.H. Robinson's own engineer goes scorched earth on Reddit, the Ghost Truck Act gets roasted, and more in today's newsletter.
Plus, overseas ELD tampering, 100 pallets of stolen womenswear, 20,000 Mexican truckers losing US visas, and more in today's newsletter.
While everyone in trucking is watching rates, capacity, and fraud, a much bigger shift may be happening quietly in the background: the future of rail.
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