🎣 Go Back to Sleep

March's freight market update. Plus: Elon's $25B chip factory in Texas, UNFI closing a Wisconsin DC, Chick-fil-A building its own supply chain, and more.

🎣 Go Back to Sleep

TGIF. Small carriers are parking trucks due to diesel costs, and the freight market is tighter than it looks on paper. Full breakdown below.

Plus:

  • Elon's $25B Terafab in Austin
  • UNFI closing Wisconsin DC
  • Chick-fil-A Lubbock
📹
Freight Gong Friday: Live from MATS. Catch Reed Loustalot live from the Mid-America Trucking Show (MATS) in Louisville, KY, the largest trucking show in the U.S. Going live at 12 PM ET on LinkedIn and YouTube.

Today's Newsletter is Brought to You By OTR Solutions.

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Question of the Day: Van load-to-truck ratios are up roughly ___% year-over-year.


🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight

🤖 Elon Is Building a $25 Billion Chip Factory Next to the Biggest Truck Hub in Texas. Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI are combining forces on "Terafab," a massive semiconductor facility planned for the North Campus of Giga Texas in Austin. The project aims to produce 100 to 200 million AI chips annually and is expected to cost between $20 and $25 billion. Tesla's CFO confirmed the investment is not yet in the company's existing capital plans. Construction starts later this year. If you run flatbed lanes in Central Texas, start paying attention. That build is going to need a lot of steel.

🏭 UNFI Is Closing a DC and Blaming the Robots. United Natural Foods is shutting its Sturtevant, Wisconsin, distribution center later this year, cutting 443 jobs in the process. The work is moving to a facility in Joliet, Illinois, where UNFI is installing full-case automation and an advanced warehouse management system. This is the second DC UNFI has closed in two years as it swaps human labor for automated systems across its network. For carriers servicing that Wisconsin facility, the freight is not disappearing. It is moving 90 miles south to Joliet.

🍗 Chick-fil-A Is Building Its Own Supply Chain. Chick-fil-A is investing $50 million in a tri-temperature distribution center in Lubbock, Texas, with freezer, refrigerated, and dry storage. Construction starts in May, with the facility expected to create 80 jobs at an average salary of $60,000. Lubbock was chosen for its location and access to West Texas restaurants. This is part of a broader push by Chick-fil-A to build at least four in-house distribution centers across the country. The chicken sandwich people are getting serious about the supply chain.


Presented by OTR Solutions

Big announcement from OTR Solutions this Monday, March 30th.

Stay tuned for more details after the weekend. 🚚 📈


Diesel Is Resetting the Freight Market

Image Source: Arrive

Arrive’s latest market update confirms what brokers and carriers are feeling on the ground: diesel is driving everything right now.

Fuel prices have jumped due to geopolitical tensions, which is immediately pushing contract rates higher through fuel surcharges. But spot rates haven’t caught up yet, creating a lag in which carriers pay more upfront while waiting weeks to recover those costs.

Comments on our Instagram post from two days ago.

Smaller, spot-heavy carriers are getting squeezed the most. Some will push for higher rates. Others will park their truck. Either way, capacity tightens.

Tender rejections are back near multi-year highs, hitting ~14–15% in early March as produce season ramps up. That’s not normal for this time of year.

Spot market is tightening fast. Loads are up +71% YoY, trucks are still down -10% YoY, and van load-to-truck ratios just jumped +93% YoY. Image Source: Arrive.
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Van load-to-truck ratios are up roughly 93% year-over-year.

In yesterday's newsletter, we shared how a trucker on YouTube published a video highlighting how the truck stop he fuels at every week was unrecognizable this week. Few trucks and open trucking spots are available easily. Small operators are parking their trucks due to the diesel surge. This will tighten capacity even more.

Demand Isn’t Fully Back

Imports dipped -6.5% YoY in February, as shippers navigate policy uncertainty and pull back from last year’s surge, but it still marks the 4th strongest February on record. Demand isn’t booming, but it’s far from dead. Image Source: Arrive.

At the same time, demand isn’t exactly booming, but it’s stabilizing.

  • Manufacturing has expanded for two straight months
  • Produce season is tightening reefer capacity
  • Flatbed demand is heating up with construction and seasonal freight

Here’s where it gets more complicated.

Shippers are reacting to higher fuel costs by shifting freight to rail and intermodal to protect margins.

So the market looks confusing:

  • Spot rates lagging
  • Contract rates elevated
  • Demand mixed
  • Capacity tightening

If diesel stays high, something has to give.

Either:

  • spot rates rise
  • or capacity exits faster

Both lead to the same outcome: A tighter freight market heading into peak season.

Check out the full Arrive market report (one of the best in the industry) here.


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 🌎 Around the Freight Web

🤝 Echo & ITS Are Officially One Company. Echo Global Logistics closed its acquisition of ITS Logistics, creating a combined 3PL with $5.2 billion in revenue. The deal was announced in January. It is done now.

📉 Oakland Imports Down 14.5%. The Port of Oakland processed 163,254 TEUs in February, down 14.5% year over year. Carriers are increasingly routing U.S. imports through Mexican and Canadian hubs, where freight is railed or trucked across the border.

🚛 Idaho Freed the Trucks. Governor Brad Little signed House Bill 664, eliminating the lower speed limit for semi trucks and matching them to passenger vehicle speeds. On most rural highways in Idaho, that means 80 mph.

💰 USPS Is Raising Rates 8% Starting April 26. The Postal Service is hiking prices on Priority Mail, Priority Mail Express, Ground Advantage, and Parcel Select through January 2027. The reason: diesel at $5.38 a gallon and an agency that's a year away from running out of cash.

🚂 Rail Is Having Its Best Start in Years. U.S. rail traffic for the week ending March 21 totaled 502,252 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.2% year over year. Cumulative carloads through 11 weeks are up 4.7% year over year. One soft spot: Mexico rail volume fell 6% for the week.


🎣 The FreightCaviar Corner

Issue 002 of FreightCaviar Print is almost here.

80 pages on the history of Freight Alley.

Print magazine + Caviar Circle access.

From $17/month.

30-day money-back guarantee. If it's not for you, we'll refund you right away, and you still keep both Winter and Spring editions.

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🎧
The FreightCaviar Podcast: Listen to this week's episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or watch the interview on YouTube.

Freight Humor

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