Trucking, Retail Face Mass Layoffs; Apollo Cites Tariff-Driven Recession

A severe U.S. recession triggered by rising tariffs is set to unleash mass layoffs across the trucking and retail sectors, according to a grim new forecast from Apollo Global Management. The analysis points to collapsing freight volumes, slumping consumer confidence, and supply chain turmoil as key drivers of the downturn.

“This stagflation scenario poses policy challenges, as traditional monetary tools may struggle to curb inflation while supporting growth,” Apollo’s report warns.

Trucking Sector Faces Deep Cuts

Apollo’s analysis highlights the trucking industry as one of the hardest-hit sectors:

• Imports account for 20% of U.S. trucking volumes, making the sharp drop in container ship voyages from China a direct blow to freight demand.
• By mid-May, Apollo expects domestic freight activity to sharply slow, forcing carriers to slash labor costs to survive the prolonged Great Freight Recession.
• Layoffs will cascade through firms struggling with underutilized fleets and shrinking margins.

Retailers Prepare for Supply Chain and Demand Shocks

Retailers are bracing for multiple pressures:

• Tariff-induced supply chain disruptions leading to inventory shortages.
• Declining consumer confidence — driven by inflation, rising credit delinquencies, and cautious spending — cutting into sales of non-essential goods.
• Apollo forecasts that major job cuts will hit the retail sector by June as companies respond to reduced demand and rising costs.

Companies like Chipotle and Southwest Airlines have already noted that “consumers are saving more due to economic concerns,” Apollo reports.

Freight-Related Layoffs Already Sweeping the Southeast

FreightWaves has gathered data on more than 1,800 layoffs across Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina since April, as manufacturing, distribution, and freight companies cut operations. Among the most notable:

• C&S Wholesale Services (Florida): 490 jobs cut at Baldwin distribution center.
• Adient Plc (Tennessee): 415 layoffs from two automotive parts factories.
• Saks Global (Tennessee): 446 fulfillment center jobs eliminated in La Vergne.

Other major closures include Grede LLC’s Alabama iron foundry (220 layoffs) and Bunzl Distribution USA’s Memphis facility (106 layoffs).

“We are transferring work across our network of facilities to maximize utilization of assets and reduce inefficiencies,” Grede told AL.com about its Brewton plant closure.

Economic Outlook: Rising Stagflation Risks

Apollo warns that the U.S. faces not just recession, but stagflation. With corporate earnings forecasts falling and investment slowing, the economic landscape is shifting toward cautious spending and broader job cuts across sectors.

Strategic interventions will be critical to buffer the most vulnerable industries as the tariff-driven slowdown deepens.

Source: FreightWaves 1 | 2